Dow sends unhappy Valentine. Read ’em and weep.

The big question of the moment amongst technicians is whether the low of January will be tested. Some say no, some say yes. We say that crystal ball gazing has never been anything but a way to get broken glass in your eye. We also say that from the December high a downwave pattern is developing, increasing the likelihood that the January low will be not only tested, but taken out. If the February high is taken out prices will return to the sideways pattern. Doesn’t look likely.

NYC is always good to look at also. It also shows perhaps a little more clearly (because it is less messy) that prices are attempting to find support at the horizontal line just over 80. So what’s it all mean? Beats us. Present trend will tend to continue. Uh — isn’t that down. Looks like it. Fortunately we don’t have to say anything about it till Monday week (the 25th).

Remember: We do not stand behind our forecasts.

No uncertainty in the metals. The Lone Ranger is applauding silver. (SLV) We don’t feel Tonto about it.

Aggressive traders might get long on the downsloping line (just around 77). The true breakout line is just under 78.

We wouldn’t be in a hurry here (or anywhere else). The ongoing Chinese water torture of bad news from the subprime and the credit implosion must finish before we get any sort of bull market. And, in case you forgot, we also need to tank this administration and its costly war. We hear that there is now a cult in Southern California and Waco that expects Ronald Reagan to come to earth again and preclaim “Mourning in America.”

In closing: Waterboard Congress. Stay tuned we will be more coherent the 25th.

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