Archive for May, 2008

Sell in May and go away???

Posted on May 30, 2008 by .

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These are times that try analysts’ souls, as Thomas Paine said. Whipsaws and treacherous markets will do that to not just analysts, but to everyone. One chart thing is for sure: prices are range bound between 3 and 3. Where they are going next is anyone’s guess. So how do you analyze a conundrum?

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Win some, lose some. Let the winners run and cut the losers and you’ll wind up as rich as Jesse Livermore.

Posted on May 23, 2008 by .

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Double bottom? Extended trading range? Pain in the Posterior Pattern? Some of all of the above. For all intents and purposes nothing is decided in stocks. This week’s hammering throws in doubt everything in May, if not April also. You will remember our comments that it was a situation to dip a toe into. Hopefully the piranhas don’t get the toe.

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Not yet believers– but avid analyzers

Posted on May 09, 2008 by .

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As we have said belief is a bad thing to have in the markets. As the markets went to the October high legions of analysts refused to believe the chart and remained bearish, switching opinion just in time to catch the bear downwave. Now the Dow chart says we are in a 7 week (m/l) uptrend. January to April can well be the formation of a double bottom (appears mostly likely at this point) or a trading range whose range has just been extended in order to create a bull trap. The skillful action in these cases is to scale in to a position. Lightly lightly when there is much uncertainty.

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The Market hath its reasons which the mind understandeth not.

Posted on May 02, 2008 by .

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Understanding is way behind on the importance scale of dealing with the markets. Right up in first place is the simple act of analysis. If you can analyze and suspend disbelief you can not only prosper in the market you can be the superman of the universe. By which we mean, what? Trading range breakout? Some of our readers (astute readers) have called attention to the resemblance of the trading range to a double bottom and indeed this appears to be what has occurred.

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