These are times that try analysts’ souls, as Thomas Paine said. Whipsaws and treacherous markets will do that to not just analysts, but to everyone. One chart thing is for sure: prices are range bound between 3 and 3. Where they are going next is anyone’s guess. So how do you analyze a conundrum?
By committing capital lightly and sparingly. A rule of betting: when the odds and probabilities are uncertain keep your bet small.
Another possibility is just standing aside until on of the 3 level points is taken out.
Lately, indicative of the cross current nature of virtually all of the markets, adventuresome trades have been unproductive, or are still in doubt. An instance here in the CRB. Gaps on the upside out of the triangle should be good trade signals. The excursion back into the pattern casts this in doubt.Is it necessary to say that stops would have been placed under the May low? We assume that our readers know our stern dictum on stops. We don’t always belabor the point — perhaps should.
The same thing has occurred in gold. An adventuresome buy signal may get canceled here.The market is sending a message: everything is in flux.
The near term trend in gold is down, but we still are long term bulls. As you can see it’s been a long wave up without any significant downwave. This is it.
Still in a bull picture, OIL,but we think the oil could hit the fan anytime soon. We would lighten up. Still it is a fun market with new developments every day — a blown up pipeline or country and the rocket takes off again. it is radically overbought. That doesn’t mean it can’t get more overbought.
True to the fluctuating nature of the markets the dollar is trying to hold its own and if we were short we wouldn’t be. Is this the bottom? Only the central bankers know, and only the Bush Administration knows why it has got this bad anyway. Wars deficits and general incompetence may have something to do with it — or it could be they just didn’t notice.
You’ll notice if you go to Europe this summer.