Sometimes we wonder if we’re too clever by half, or not dumb enough by a quarter. The falling knife will be examined in the last panel this week. Sell in May and go away? Wouldn’t have been a bad idea. The May bulge begins to look like a bull trap. We won’t review our analytical agonies over the past few weeks as that would be boring (more boring to you than to us). This downwave is not finished by any means. And the trend momentum is down. So, that is, major trend momentum sideways, minor trend down. Capital should be flowing to sectors which are moving. Oil, commodities, metals and SURPRISE see last panel.

The futures chart of light crude. Here’s the question: can you imagine any good news on the crude front? At some point the feds are going to bust the futures market, because it is exacerbating the situation.Incidentally, this pattern is a buy signal.

We are completely aghast that our laws do not allow the execution of ex-(or even serving) presidents. Wonder how long the Bush family is in the oil market.

There’s the futures, here’s the etf, open the steeple and here’s the people. Unfortunately (for us) most of our readers are not two gun toting commodities traders. Our sedate readers should be participating with the etf.

Whenever the talking heads on Marketwatch start touting silver it’s time to take notice. At the moment silver and gold are resting. The three day activity in silver may be area gaps, or signal gaps. We are long term long the metals, and would buy some more here. This is breaking the rules. (Ah, remember that kindergarten teacher who admonished us for coloring outside the lines?)The rule is that you shouldn’t be buying here until the horizontal line is taken out. That is in fact the conservative procedure.

Damn the rules and full speed ahead.

Bottom forming in the dollar? Again prudent and conservative investors will wait.