Run for the hills. Bulls on the loose.

Posted on Dec 09, 2008 by in Letters

Well, maybe.  The upwave that started November 21 just broke away and looks to carry much higher.  We think that shorts should begin hedging by matching their shorts with longs in indices and ETFs.  Depending on how strong you feel the upwave is you might even go fully hedged, or even some % long.  As is obvious we have been nibbling at bottom fish for a little while here and buying lottery tickets. In addition to the major indices Ford and GE (among many others) gave buy signals today.  Now note that a change of trend signal has not occurred.  And in fact we would not be surprised if this wave runs uphill here and exhausts itself when the market realizes that Barak does not walk on water and that the economy far from being watery is quicksand. So this note is for the speculators and adventuresome.  The patient might want to wait for the change of trend signal.    In all our experience we have never seen markets like these.  They virtually make a mockery of systems trading and methodological trading.  Contrarian methods and trading styles and luck rule the day here.  Here is what we expect:  an extended upwave, followed by more bad news which reestablishes the bear market.  There is every possibility that there will be a change of trend signal that will be false.  We are working overtime to psych out these events and readers should check frequently for whatever we invent next.

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