Comments on: Hanging man? Hanging around for what? State of the Dow. http://www.edwards-magee.com/2008/12/29/hanging-man-hanging-around-for-what-state-of-the-dow/ The Foundation Upon Which Technical Analysis is Built - WHC Bassetti Fri, 20 Aug 2010 03:21:14 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: WHC Bassetti http://www.edwards-magee.com/2008/12/29/hanging-man-hanging-around-for-what-state-of-the-dow/comment-page-1/#comment-89 WHC Bassetti Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:18:38 +0000 http://www.edwards-magee.com/?p=379#comment-89 I have always regretted premature analysis of formations. The present Dow pattern in my analysis could be the start of a bottom, but the recovery from the nose (or head) is not sufficient to draw a neckline. I will post a chart later. At the moment we are watching the rally, which rather than looking like a shoulder looks like the unresolved upwave from the nose. To a certain extent this is academic or non pragmatic discourse. We know we should be short and staying that way. I have always regretted premature analysis of formations. The present Dow pattern in my analysis could be the start of a bottom, but the recovery from the nose (or head) is not sufficient to draw a neckline. I will post a chart later. At the moment we are watching the rally, which rather than looking like a shoulder looks like the unresolved upwave from the nose. To a certain extent this is academic or non pragmatic discourse. We know we should be short and staying that way.

]]> By: alain http://www.edwards-magee.com/2008/12/29/hanging-man-hanging-around-for-what-state-of-the-dow/comment-page-1/#comment-88 alain Tue, 30 Dec 2008 16:20:46 +0000 http://www.edwards-magee.com/?p=379#comment-88 The slowing VIX made me to I re-read Chapter 7 again, explaining the formation of Kilroy as bottom formation We have 2 left shoulders, a head with a left and right shoulder yet. If we will start forming 2 right shoulders on the 1000 (SPX) neckline, we could complete the formation. Symmetry and volume seem ok. I am looking for a pullback from that possible 2nd neckline prior to enter long equities. The SPX target should reach then around September high. But all this may not reverse the primary trend yet. We would still be in a bear market phase 2/3 at this point. The slowing VIX made me to I re-read Chapter 7 again, explaining the formation of Kilroy as bottom formation We have 2 left shoulders, a head with a left and right shoulder yet. If we will start forming 2 right shoulders on the 1000 (SPX) neckline, we could complete the formation. Symmetry and volume seem ok. I am looking for a pullback from that possible 2nd neckline prior to enter long equities. The SPX target should reach then around September high.

But all this may not reverse the primary trend yet. We would still be in a bear market phase 2/3 at this point.

]]> By: alain http://www.edwards-magee.com/2008/12/29/hanging-man-hanging-around-for-what-state-of-the-dow/comment-page-1/#comment-87 alain Mon, 29 Dec 2008 23:26:08 +0000 http://www.edwards-magee.com/?p=379#comment-87 The breakout of the trading ranges lead into a disappointing gloom secondary recovery, unable to close above any key point. The only positive is the VIX’s diamond pattern with down side breakout. Indices retrace between 33 – 62% while we stopped at 32% (SPX). Reaching the 1050 upside would mean a 59% retracement. The raising wedge pattern ended in an ascending triangle with a down side breakout for now. I watch the SPX 845 level for confirmation. In my opinion, we seem to setup for the third phase of the bear market lead by big caps offering reasonable put options with sufficient volume. The breakout of the trading ranges lead into a disappointing gloom secondary recovery, unable to close above any key point. The only positive is the VIX’s diamond pattern with down side breakout. Indices retrace between 33 – 62% while we stopped at 32% (SPX). Reaching the 1050 upside would mean a 59% retracement. The raising wedge pattern ended in an ascending triangle with a down side breakout for now. I watch the SPX 845 level for confirmation.
In my opinion, we seem to setup for the third phase of the bear market lead by big caps offering reasonable put options with sufficient volume.

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