The question everyone wants answered: what’s it going to do next?

And of course no one in the world knows.  Beware of anyone who claims otherwise.  Analysis can tell you a lot of things, but most of the time it tells you what just happened or what is happening, but not what is going to happen next.  There is of course the old joke about a consultant being a person who borrows your watch and then tells you what time it is.  In line with that we want to tell you that the blast off from the bottom has paused for two days.  What does it mean? you ask, just after we told you that no one knows what it means.  Well, what it means is that everyone can have anxiety fits about what it means.  Then we tell you that the present trend tends to continue.  The present minor trend is up.  It will probably continue.  The two day downdraft doesn’t appear to be sufficiently strong to reverse the rally.  Anyway if you’re worried about two days you’re too close to the market.  The real meaning of this rally is that a new basing point is being formed.  Once we have three days away on the downside we’ll have a new basing point.  Will there be an opportunity to put on new shorts?  We’ll let you know if we see an obvious chance.  Would you believe there are readers who think we are geniuses for our work?  Here.  Here’s your watch back.

If we wanted to drive you crazy (and ourselves) we could.  The minorminor trend is down (i.e. 2 day)  If you wanted to get obsessive you could go in and analyze the hourly data (we did that).  We discovered that the minorminor trend is down.  When the hourly data shows a break of the downtrend which persists the rally will resume.  Could we see that watch again?

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