Archive for March, 2009

Oil! Oil! Oil in …

Posted on Mar 20, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

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Maybe we should have said “Oil?”  USO might be worth a light speculative commitment.  We have felt for some time that oil was oversold.  The chart of course doesn’t care what we think.  It just keeps going down.   But there is an effort here to rally and strike a realistic market price.  Conservative speculators will wait until the horizontal lines are pierced and plungers will get a head start here.  With a stop 2 or 3% under the nearby low.

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Fooled by fool’s gold

Posted on Mar 19, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

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Cancel that last letter.  It was written before the market closed.  If anything today is a buy signal in GLD.It is our usual practice to wait till the close to exit.  We broke that rule today and the market made us pay for it.  

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Fool’s gold

Posted on Mar 18, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

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Today’s action looks like a definite sell signal in gold and we are exiting our personal positions in SLV and GLD.  We regard this as one of those to be expected down waves and will reenter for the great bull market to be.

 

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Rocket ship lifts off amid space junk and less bad (gooder?) news

Posted on Mar 13, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

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Off the bottom the Dow gained close enough to 10% to say 10% ending the downwave which lasted 40 odd days.  There have been three days away from the low day giving us some assurance that the downwave has ended.  The strength of the surge advises us to treat this upwave seriously — perhaps scaling out of shorts and paying attention to the longs in our portfolio (remember the natural hedges?).  The lottery tickets we bought in F, C, FNM, FRE etc could yield some paper profits in this wave.  The tenor (also the bass) of the news has picked up this week, there was a full moon (which Rush Limbaugh howled at) and Jon Stewart instead of picking on Rush demolished Jim Cramer.  Stewart for president.  To us anyone who watches CNBC gets what he deserves. Cramer was baying at the moon to buy Bear Stearns a few weeks before it went down the toilet.  We are in a trading environment and we expect trenders and traders to jump on this wave to punish shorts.  Hedges in the major indices could well be in order, with the intent to jump out of them at the first sign of weakness.  This is not a bottom.  We expect to see a test of this low after this upwave is exhausted.  For now the tide is running up the beach.  

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DBA (doing business as…two left feet)

Posted on Mar 12, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

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We have been following our economic analysis expecting bull markets in the commodity ETFs.  Here is DBA which could well be setting up a Kilroy (or inverse, reversed Srissasana upside down head and shoulders) bottom.  Today’s action could be a speculative (very) signal.  There is a possible signal when the downtrend line gets crossed (depending on the circumstances) and, of course the prudent trader’s signal is the penetration of the horizontal fence (neck) line.

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