OIL. As many readers have pointed out OIL has broken out of a triangle and we have a clear buy signal. But frankly we think the oil rush is over. The probability of oil returning to its former heights are slim and none. This is now a trading market and the probable move here is six or seven points. We might buy two units of it and sell one for a trade when that is achieved and keep the other as a trend trade.
This is not a chart analysis as to the long term prospects for oil, but an economic analysis. The six or seven points is a chart analysis. And you remember what Keynes said about economic forecasting: the purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look good.
So this is very much an opinion. Readers should always discount opinion, even when it comes from ourselves. We can’t remember anything we’ve been wrong about lately (well, maybe the Red Sox) but give the market a little time for us to get egg on our face.