Dow goes rectangular.

091220induSince July the Dow has advanced in more or less regular waves with the surge drift flush pattern.  Now this pattern appears to be ending and a rectangle is being set up.

This honors the observation that an up wave may be followed by a sidewave, as well as a downwave.

As the low of a sidewave can serve as a Basing Point some investors might tighten their stops using the low here.

Exit from the rectangle will determine the next direction  of prices.

091218spxatrHere Average True Range is illustrated in the lower panel where we see declining readings.  ATR is a pragmatic measurement of volatility derived from daily price ranges.  Volatility tends to revert to the mean.  So very low readings like this usually presage some potentially explosive movement.   Since all the real traders are in the Hamptons, Aspen and Barbados amateurs might try to mount an attack on the market.  Let us hope they stay home for Christmas instead.

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