4 days up…downwave in INDU

100225induMost readers are unaware (blessedly) that a species of technical gnome sits in his garret and computes what happens when the market is up 4 (or down 4) days — how much it gains or loses in the next 5 days, the next 10 days, etc, etc.  We don’t have to do that.  We know that after an upwave there will be a downwave.  Market mischief makers will attempt to exacerbate the volatility resulting from these natural market waves.  We will largely ignore them.

The only crucial question is will price test the Feb low.  Based on today’s action that doesn’t appear very likely — although we have taken more into account than just today’s action.  Mischief makers attempted to panic the market (there is a not inconsiderable short interest hanging over the market) and it worked for awhile until prices looked like a bargain and traders jumped in to buy.

While Greece, Europe  and its PIGS pen look messy short term traders just mess with it while the general opinion seems to be that it’s not enough to tube the market over, and that is probably true.

Isn’t it pleasant to be able to look at the chart and see the important elements of the market and not have to worry about who Goldman is chiseling and who Cramer is misleading?

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