Archive for May, 2010

$spx, $indu — a reversal day?

Posted on May 17, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

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2010-05-17-spxToday looks very like a reversal day.  After markets selling off earlier in Asia an excursion over 100 points down was completely expectable.  To reverse field and finish up on the day is characteristic of a reversal day.  As always (readers will begin to think this is our middle name) we are suspicious.  But at the very least for the bull case this is more optimistic than finishing at the bottom.  That would have been a very black bar indeed with pessimistic expectations.  Possibly very pessimistic expectations.

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Black Friday. Grey Friday? Thank god it’s Friday? QID and other hedges

Posted on May 14, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

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2010-05-14-qidHere is a 30 minute bar chart of the short Qs ETF, which we use for hedging.  We bought some of this today, meaning we’re hedging, and we also took some other exposure off the table –sold BAC and some DIA.  Hedged Qs and S&P (buying SPXU).  Bought some UUP to short the euro.

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Chin UUP and go for the GLD.

Posted on May 13, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

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2010-05-13-uupUUP — as we have previously noted is the long side of the euro trade, although other currencies are involved.  We have pretty much been long for months, and it probably a more conservative way to trade the euro, but nevertheless the system is still short the euro.  Short the euro, or long the UUP and long gold are pretty much the prettiest pictures right now as the market staggers away from the abyss.

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Was that a truck that hit us? No just a computer glitch. GLD and $INDU.

Posted on May 11, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

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2010-05-11-induAs we expected Monday brought a vigorous bounce from the chaos of last week.  Tuesday, today, results in a neutral day.  We may well see another attempt to take the market down and test Friday’s low.  A test of Friday’s low is most unlikely unless the Texas chain saw sadist attacks the market.  Regardless we think the wide stop we had (9729) is well placed and unlikely to be taken out.

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Fearless predictions.

Posted on May 10, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

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Investors may have spent an uncomfortable weekend wondering if  Monday would recapitulate the crash of 1987.  Having made a big splash by forecasting an S&P of 1565 a few days ago we would  like to go further out on the limb and predict a Monday of rebound – perhaps dramatic.

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