Archive for November, 2010

Currency misinformation. JPY, CHF

Posted on Nov 29, 2010 by .

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As you have heard, ad infinitum, and with great emphasis and wailing, The dollar is being weakened — deliberately –in a plot to lower the costs of US exports — as well as  avoiding deflation.  The problem is that the charts show the dollar strengthening against the Yen and against the Swiss franc.

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Luck of Irish drives euro lower.

Posted on Nov 23, 2010 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p88765093810&a=203282122

It appears to us that the euro has resumed its long term downtrend.  Whether it’s the fault of the Irish or Goldman Sachs or the Germans does not concern us, though we are certain that if they listened to us the European economy would be in a lot better shape.  But that is also true for the US economy, where Geithner never returns our calls.  And Congress ignores us.  Well, as the Spanish say, Living well is the best revenge.  For us trading on their incompetence is the best revenge.

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Squirrel markets. Bulls bears mules hibernate. Playing defense better than the 49ers.

Posted on Nov 22, 2010 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p25782902376&a=202457238

Squirrel markets can drive you nuts.  It certainly drove us nuts to write this commentary.  And it’s probably driving our readers nuts.  It was not till we went to the hourly chart that it became clear to us.  As you can see we are in a clear downwave, now 12 days long and about 3 and a half  percent.

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Gnarly surfing in deep anxiety waters. DIA, FXE, TLT, IED

Posted on Nov 19, 2010 by .

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Most analysts have “indicators” that tip them off as to when the market is going to turn and when to buy and sell.  Some have indicators as to general market mood.  Outr general market mood indicator is an old west Texas cowboy named Michael who buttonholes us in the bars and coffee houses we frequent.  Michael says there is deep unease in the investment community.  We believe this 100%.  All you have to do to see symptoms of it is look at the major market indices over the past 10 days or so.  1.6% up, 1.78% down.  Enough to tip a trader off his surfboard.

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