Lemming stampede…

Posted on Apr 04, 2015 by in Letters

On good Friday they opened the futures markets long enough for the lemmings to rush through the door and over the cliff.  It was too early for humans on the west coast, but the lemmings on the east coast grabbed their bathing suits and headed for the beach.  They managed to drive the futures down about 22 points in around thirty minutes.  This nonsense was occasioned by (heaven forfend!) the depression causing low jobs number.

Screenshot 2015-04-04 18.23.36 (no link, sorry)

(We have decorated this with evidence of our technological prowess to add a little color.)

In all likelihood Sunday evening when futures reopen we will see a 40 point gap up to set things to rights.  Because the market is right where it was:  beween the devil and the deep blue sea.

0403spx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09524411098&a=266398464

Obviously this is a suspect chart.  The trendline from Oct14 is broken.  A lower high has been made.  Black bars are the telltale signs of contrarians waiting for another chance to ambush the market.   But in fact we are in a waiting game now.  A lower low would be a hair trigger to start putting on a hedge.  A new high would probably break the backs of the contrarians and we would see a strong wave up.  The A-B-C (alpha-beta…) formation has fragmented and analysis now is based on high lows.

We are looking forward to more volatility and jerking around, but that is the price you pay late in this historic bull trend. (Not dead yet.)

 

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