Waiting for …Godot…or Uber, or the guys in the pom-pom shoes…

Posted on Jul 05, 2015 by in Letters

0705spx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05271428421&a=414952219

Everyone is waiting for the other tasseled shoe to drop except the French taxi drivers who are taking things into their own hands and thumbing their noses at the Austrian economists and creative destruction.  While investors wait the market is firmly in the hands of the traders and contrarians and likely to remain so until Congress gets off its duff and implements some infrastructure repair programs.  Let’s see — that will be in 2017, unless Hillary wins in which case it will be in 2024 –unless…  Well at least the Greeks are more together than our Congress.  (If that’s not too big an insult to the Greeks.)

Meantime the market has a distinctly bearish cast.

0705slv

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70690855904&a=355295517

Looking around there are a plethora of issues in downtrends, starting with silver and gold, the Chinese issues and TLT.  With a moderately prudent stop and a controlled position size you could be short any of these.  We are short the SPX in a small trade, which we will increase if the Greeks drop that tassled bootie on the market.

The piercing of the neckline awaits confirmation.  It is very common in these cases for a rally (investors rejoicing in the bargain prices) to take prices back above the neckline.  Head and shoulders or not, if you look at the waves they are setting up lower highs, lower lows.

Happy Fourth.

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