Archive for September, 2015

Five days down. Woe, woe…

Posted on Sep 28, 2015 by .



We have pointed out that trading in the box here is most likley a vain enterprise.  It will be even vainer if price breaks this lower  line convincingly.

We started to add shorts, but then looked at the situation and bought instead, expecting a reaction to the 5-days down pattern.  So it’s fifty-fifty now– whether we will see a rally here or a test of the low.  We still expext more downside and are looking for a place to get short.

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Common sense from the chart…

Posted on Sep 24, 2015 by .



It seems to us that the SPX (and thus the market) is headed for a retest of the September low.  There may be a day or so of upside, but the market will hang fire until the low is tested.  So we are going to hedge our positions and wait to see what the market does to cause pain and consternation here.

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Lack of certainty…

Posted on Sep 13, 2015 by .



We have remarked that we consider this year long action one formation.  And — with 20/20 hindsight it is now clear that the systems Basing Point should have remained at the oct14 low.  We had already discounted the flash low as an  invalid trend change.  This reconsideration furnishes the theoretical rationale for our present posture.  Which is… We scaled in to small bets in UPRO.  An aggressive move.  Not for conservatives.

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Cunning conundrum …

Posted on Sep 08, 2015 by .



Houston we have a conundrum.  But we may have a cunning way to deal with it.

The market has broken the Basing Point stops.  The mar09 tsrendline is broken.  The Dow Theory has produced a sell signal.  The talking heads and the permabears (polar bears?)  think it’s the beginning of a bear market.  What do we think?  We don’t think.  We analyze.  We view the entire formation, as here:

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