Thinking inside the box…

Posted on Nov 12, 2015 by in Letters

1112spxbox

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90070012523&a=431391217

In recent letters we have  correctly analyzed the box above as a high risk, high volatility area.  In our most recent letters we thought (incorrectly) that a strong uptrend was developing.  That analysis is now in doubt and the characterization of the box as a danger zone is reintroduced.  Nevertheless we made some nice trading profits from the zeta wave — and are now trying to get out of the way of the steam roller by closing those trades.

Our original analysis that conservative investors should wait until prices were out of the box appears to have been the reasonable one.  A candlestick view below:

1112spxc

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44892117966&a=432305978

The box is better illustrated in this chart.  Definitive exit from the box is necessary to determine the next wave of the market.  We are inclined to think that a new bull market will develop, based on the PnF chart and the suspicion that the present top  fits with a bullish analysis.

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