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Technical Analysis of Stock Trends | Archive | September
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Archive for September, 2016

The Long View…

Posted on Sep 28, 2016 by .

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Being that the short view is so tedious, we thought we would take a look at the long view.  It may surprise you, but the bull market which started in mar09 is alive and –we might argue– well.   Although that contravenes the tedious description.  We are presently in a side wave of that market, […]

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Time to buy?

Posted on Sep 22, 2016 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464 The formation is formless here and the trendline is more or less invented, so buying at this point requires some boldness.  It would be more conservative to wait for the old high to be taken out.  But there is some resemblance to the a-b-g-z wave in a weird way.  Besides you can always erase […]

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What you really need to know about VIX… and no more…

Posted on Sep 14, 2016 by .

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VIX attempts to measure the expected 30 day volatility  of the SPX by averaging the weighted prices of SPX puts and calls over a wide range of strike prices. Financial journalists always on the lookout to add drama to the boring world of FASB and billion dollar mergers have called the index “the fear index”.  There […]

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Volatility reverts to the mean…with a vengeance…

Posted on Sep 12, 2016 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464 As we frequently note volatility is mean reverting.  Friday it reverted in a major way.   http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34770779486 There has been extraordinary anxiety in the marketplace. This derives in part from market perception of high values and the looming monster of Fed rate rises.  It’s like walking throgh the haunted house and the skeleton  yells […]

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Bit by bit…literally

Posted on Sep 06, 2016 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464 Like Chinese water torture the ultra low range price movement continues — 42 days and counting.  Lest readers over emphasize this unusual behavior  note that this is by no means the longest occurrence of playing dead.  (Less than 1% movement from close to close.)  In fact between July and November  of ’95 there was […]

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