Archive for October, 2016

Between the devil and…

Posted on Oct 26, 2016 by .

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1024spx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10599378927

In this bizarre political season, in this surrealistic country, the market frequently gets kooky or kinky (maybe not kinky–that’s the province of the great orange one).  (In the investment community the posssibility of a triumph by the great orange one is regarded with fear and loathing — instant lossses of 10 to 15%.  We fundamentally agree with this forecast.  At the very least radical volatility  should result. We’ll discuss this down page.)

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More (or less) of the same…

Posted on Oct 19, 2016 by .

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1018spx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

We have been watching closely as price fell out of the triangle.  Under different circmstances we might have taken it as a short signal.  But in the present context we completely discounted the action. The other major indices did not confirm.  There was no confirmation or follow-through.)  So once again the old principle is proven:  The present trend tends to continue.    The present trend is obviously sideways choppy, with contrarians in charge.   The length and vigor of this trend are impressive.  (Illustrating Keynes’ famous dictum:  The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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Yo-yo markets in Death Valley…

Posted on Oct 06, 2016 by .

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1006rsp

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=RSP,PWTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]

We are in, and have been in, one of the most difficult periods in our 55 years in the market.    We re not alone in this assessment of the market.  Hedge funds are dropping like flies and mutual funds are watching  investors flee like refugees leaving Syria.

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