Standing in front of the train, or riding it…

Posted on Jan 18, 2018 by in Letters

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75734112346

The WSJ notes that many investors are standing on the sidelines salivating — waiting for the correction to buy.  This is amateur tactics.

When the market has (or is) run (ing) away from you the smart trading tactic is to scale in.  Divide the capital you intend to have in the market when all in by three or five (or pick your poison) and close your eyes and jump in with tranche 1.  If the market keeps running put on the second tranche and so on.  Sitting on the train tracks and watching the strain disappear in the distance is bad for morale.  You can–and should–set a stop to protect your trade.  You can pick the long term trend stop or set a trading stop  –e.g. the three days away low, or 3% or 5%.  We added to our leveraged SPY position today.

In case you haven’t figured it out — or ignored our letters — we are in one of the great bull markets of history.  Miss out altogether and cry bitter tears.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

Illustrated is the famous parabola.  We don’t think that moment has arrived yet.

There are a host of indicators, pundits, p/e ratios, exploding meteors, psycopathic presidents, craven congressmen, government shutdowns –how do I love thee, let me count the ways.  Meantime shortly we will fill your mailbox with a long term prognosis.  Stay tuned.

Until then, bet on the Patriots unless you believe in freak miracles in which case bet the Vikes.

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