Archive for November, 2018

Belaboring the obvious…

Posted on Nov 25, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/BvbF3W

At the risk of being repetitive — or of being thought a nag —  we offer a modest update on the ongoing sell off in the market.  It is not over and is unlikely to be over soon.  We shared our tactic of scaling out on the scale down when the market broke.  This tactic has allowed  us to preserve the great majority of our capital.  Though mightily tempted to try to catch the falling knife.  We now think that if ever there were a time to avoid the knife this is it.  Quite possibly this is the unique sell off not just of this market, but of all markets.

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Take a deep breath and give thanks..

Posted on Nov 21, 2018 by .

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Every year at Thanksgiving we make a practice of donating to our local food bank.  donate.sfmfoodbank.org.  Google will give you your local food bank.

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Bad news– good news…

Posted on Nov 21, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/6c3gs3

The bad news is pretty obvious.  You’re loooking at it.  This has been most unusual market action.  We have seen two severe downwaves which were complete surprises–sell offs which occurred totally without warning –as for example, absence of any top formation.  In fifty years of market experience  we have rarely if ever (perhaps 1987) seen this phenomenon.  The present downwave may be on its way to test the previous low.  If it took out the low there would be a strong possibility of an extended bear market.  We are considering going short, and at present have only a very small gold position — otherwise capital is in cash.

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Failed signals…

Posted on Nov 14, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/YPNQ1c

We have repeatedly inveighed about the dangerous volatility of this pattern.  Yesterday the Dow fell to earth like a dead duck.  Usually, of late, contrarians jump on an oversold condition, as this might be, and drive the price up sharply.  Didn’t happen.

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Buy signals and volatility…

Posted on Nov 11, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/6HHnKb

We still have questions about the wave state of the market but it’s hard to doubt the strength of this wave, whatever it may be from a theoretical point of view.  It is acting like a zeta wave and the gaps look like breakaway and continuation gaps.  Under almost any other circumstances we would buy this enthusiastically.  Here the continuing volatility and the influence of traders mean that owning this is owning some unpleasant volatility.

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