Archive for January, 2019

Safe to go in the water? with a toe maybe…

Posted on Jan 08, 2019 by .


When there is a question about whether  you should jump in the water you respond by taking the amount of capital you intend to commit over the long run and dividing it into tranches –3 to 5 pieces depending on the state of the market and the general economic situation.  When the downside risk appears potentially great you employ the most tranches.  Needless to say recent (unhappy) experience leads us to say that current conditions  remain risk saturated, so one might step in with one of five tranches and deploy the remaining tranches on a scale higher.

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The ominous…

Posted on Jan 03, 2019 by .

0  Ten years of the market, weekly bars.  A year ago at an AAPTA meeting  we told professional technical analysts that we wouldn’t have a bear market until the long term trendline was broken.  As seen below prices have (so far) bounced off the long term trendline.

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