Markets are not infrequently dificult to believe. The present markets are beyond unbelieveable. They seem to be violations of gravity if not of circumstances of the moment: a world wide plague, a civil rights insurrection in the US, Russian treachery in Afghanistan, Chinese attempts to subjugate their own citizens (complete with concentration camps) –this to mention only the obvious. Not even to mention the orange wannabe dictator whipping up cultural civil war in the US. We marvel at the landscape.
At present we see no signs of a top, but the chart bears close watching–just remembering the ambush which started the present episode June 9… 10. Readers will recall the subtlety of the break there, followed by heavy selling and a gap which created an island reversal. This is especially interesting at present. Trend tops do not usually look like this, but 17 days later prices have not closed the gap. But when the down wavelet broke its trend line 4 or 5 days of strong action occurred. We will not have a definitive signal until the high at 323 (SPY) is taen out and confirmed. Our bet is that will happen, but we are content to sit on capital until it does.
Perhaps a more telling sign is the avid interest in AMZN:
We have a light position in AMZN (and we think it is a good long term prospect). It might be a little worrying that the chart looks like it might be going parabolic. If one did take a Long Term position in AMZN he could place a stop calculated from the LT Basing Point –(2248 x .94 =2113). There may well be skirmishing about this so scaling in is advised.