On second thought…

Posted on Apr 18, 2008 by .

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We thought that the trading range shown here was well defined, and that Friday’s price surge might be a breakout. Then we looked at it again and saw what you will see below, that our original line was not totally definitive. (Actually no line is totally definitive. Interested parties attempt to mess with the lines, and that is why John Magee remarked that trend line breaks shouldn’t be considered dispositive until they had broken the line by 3%. )

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Amazed and astounded in Babylon….and other places

Posted on Apr 11, 2008 by .

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Let me get that straight — Richard Russell says we’re still in the bull market? And all sorts of low flying pundits are saying buy buy now before it’s too late?

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Never be in a hurry to do something stupid. Lee Richartz eminence grise of American Finance

Posted on Apr 04, 2008 by .

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The geese are flying back north, the chickens are coming home to roost and the traders are feeling their oats and the pundits are saying buy buy buy and the chart is saying, what me worry? –or actually that was Alfred E. Bush. The chart is saying this is all a bunch of sideways stuff. To belabor the obvious all points after 4 (.1.2 etc) are between 3 (low) and 4. By definition a trading range with a bearish bent. Any more questions? Good.

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Dow 16000? Flying-Vampire Pigs, Levitating pundits…. Random egg attacks.

Posted on Mar 28, 2008 by .

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Note “A low” and “B low”. If this yearlong formation is a massive top (perhaps a double headed head and shoulders) and A low is its lower boundary then a low of 9680 is predicted. If B low is the defining point the predicted low is 10836. Remember Nils Bohr and the difficulty of forecasting. Again, it is not necessary to believe this scenario to know how to bet. The Dow is in a six month downtrend, the last 2 1/2 months of which are sideways, with lower highs in the sidetrend. The low of 9680 is a probable minimum.

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And now, as Monty Python would say, for something entirely different

Posted on Mar 21, 2008 by .

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Namely, big change of tune and ending of this upwave in the hard assets. That howling at the full moon you hear is investors and traders moaning at the the abrupt change.

Not so abrupt in the Dow where the sideways theme within a downtrend continues. And the current trend of squirrel, or bungee markets continues.

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