Lehman falls, market falls, we’re short (since January)

Posted on Sep 18, 2008 by .

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In January of 2008 we were stopped out of our long positions and went short the Dow.  (See chart.) Except for a brief toe in the water in the May bull trap we have been short ever since.  Is this because we are geniuses?  Well, yes but —  No, it is because a simple technical analysis exercise dictated our position and we had the discipline to do it.  The beauty of technical analysis is that you  don’t have to know the future.  You just have to know what to do right now, this minute, and the future takes care of itself.  In this case being short when the market is falling off the cliff.

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Deja vous all over again.

Posted on Jun 27, 2008 by .

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We repeat here two of our past comments.

April 4, 2008 Never be in a hurry to do something stupid. Lee Richartz

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The beginning of the end? The end of the beginning? The beginning of the beginning?

Posted on Jun 27, 2008 by .

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Well, anyway you slice it this is a signal to sell short, or certainly to not be long. As you can see here the analysis we made in March has come true. Whether the head and shoulders top will fulfill all its implications is yet to be seen, but there is no doubt about what we are seeing. A landslide. Whether the start of an avalanche or not only Nils Bohr knows.

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Note stop executed back there in January

Posted on Jun 20, 2008 by .

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Note vindication of extreme uneasiness during the putative breakout of May. (The bull trap.) At the moment it looks like pretty big momentum on the Dow may find some support. That’s the bottom of the trading range. For some reason (who knows) the market has been surprisingly resilient in the face of really daunting economic realities.

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Friday the 13th and all that…

Posted on Jun 13, 2008 by .

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There have actually been two valid short basing points in this downtrend and there is as yet no sign of a bottom. It has been a mystery to us anyway how the chart could have broken above 128, except as a bull trap, which now appears to be the case. We have been saying for months that there were limited opportunities in indices and now we think that more than ever.

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