The Market hath its reasons which the mind understandeth not.

Posted on May 02, 2008 by .

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Understanding is way behind on the importance scale of dealing with the markets. Right up in first place is the simple act of analysis. If you can analyze and suspend disbelief you can not only prosper in the market you can be the superman of the universe. By which we mean, what? Trading range breakout? Some of our readers (astute readers) have called attention to the resemblance of the trading range to a double bottom and indeed this appears to be what has occurred.

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Well, is it or isn’t it?

Posted on Apr 25, 2008 by .

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A bull market or a bear market, or what is it? Over the past several weeks the technical picture in the Dow has turned up, and, in fact Schannep with some misgivings has issued a Dow Theory buy signal. A pattern of higher lows and higher highs exists since the March low. Seen here there are a couple of slanted downtrend lines which need to be taken out to confirm a rising market. The rise above what may be a neckline stretching from February can be taken as a buy signal by semi aggressive traders. Frankly we would still be more comfortable with a portfolio with some shorts in it.

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On second thought…

Posted on Apr 18, 2008 by .

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We thought that the trading range shown here was well defined, and that Friday’s price surge might be a breakout. Then we looked at it again and saw what you will see below, that our original line was not totally definitive. (Actually no line is totally definitive. Interested parties attempt to mess with the lines, and that is why John Magee remarked that trend line breaks shouldn’t be considered dispositive until they had broken the line by 3%. )

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Amazed and astounded in Babylon….and other places

Posted on Apr 11, 2008 by .

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Let me get that straight — Richard Russell says we’re still in the bull market? And all sorts of low flying pundits are saying buy buy now before it’s too late?

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Never be in a hurry to do something stupid. Lee Richartz eminence grise of American Finance

Posted on Apr 04, 2008 by .

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The geese are flying back north, the chickens are coming home to roost and the traders are feeling their oats and the pundits are saying buy buy buy and the chart is saying, what me worry? –or actually that was Alfred E. Bush. The chart is saying this is all a bunch of sideways stuff. To belabor the obvious all points after 4 (.1.2 etc) are between 3 (low) and 4. By definition a trading range with a bearish bent. Any more questions? Good.

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