A lukewarm penetration of resistance…

Posted on Mar 20, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/dvPkjWWN

A weekly chart of the S&P to lend context.  A bull market interrupted by two sell-offs.  Clearly manageable with a simple trendline.  Now in recovery with a new high just made.  Withal, the market not manifesting much enthusiasm and–just a short time until Brexit happens, or doesn’t happen and continual uncertainty on the investigations in Washington.  But the market seems to shrug off developments in that political situation as though it doesn’t care about rats, witches or blatant tax fraud.  We think that when the Trump  investigation breaks we will see all the volatility that didn’t happen in this phase of the markets.

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The tipping point… nose up against resistance…

Posted on Feb 26, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/VuskVtDx

Weekly basis.  A weekly basis chart dramatizes recent price action.  There certainly is some drama in the chart– 9 weeks of advancing prices.  The upshot is essential drama.  Price is nose up against important technical and psychological resistance.  The price itself is shot with significance:  2800.  Centenary numbers have what Gibbon called numen.  This numinous character underlies market action, inhibiting advance and when broken acting as an impulsive force.

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Man bites volatility…

Posted on Feb 18, 2019 by .

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The character of volatility never changes.  It always reverts to the mean.  That doesn’t mean that it is absolutely predictable.  That would be a rare animal indeed.  Rather it is a general concept sometimes apparently voided in specific instances.  Nonetheless it always behooves the trader/investor to know the state of volatility when making decisions.  You also have to observe (in many cases) the volatility of the individual issue you are concerned with and wheere it fits into long term behavior.

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Still damned if you do, damned…

Posted on Jan 28, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/tXAfNmEr

As we wrote last week, we dipped a tiny toe into the market  while repeating our mantra:  if this doesn’t work we’ll run for it.  Well, we did run for it.

This in spite of technical tools which point to higher prices.  If we ran a rule-of-seven analysis (http://www.edwards-magee.com/ggu/ruleofseven.pdf/) on this wave we would get target prices of  2921 and 3112.

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