Technical Analysis of Stock Trends

The problem with bottom fishing is …

Posted on Jan 20, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

you never know exactly where the bottom is.  Fishermen who fished around in C in  November and December are now wondering where the bottom is.  The smartest thing to do in these cases is not to.  Wait until a buy signal is given.  That always means missing the bottom.  It also means missing the bottom after the bottom.  On the other hand if you rode with the Light Brigade at Balacava and like danger here’s a chance to try out your spurs.  You buy it with a stop 2% down, or watch it in real time.  Please let us know how much you  spend on ulcer medicine.

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EEB, FXE, DIA, XLF, INP, IWM, IAI, FXI, MOO, RTH, DBA, QQQQ, GLD, XHB, USO

Posted on Jan 19, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

For the general investor this list of ETFs is probably sufficient to to occupy 90% of his (her?) (hizzer?) portfolio.  We just slogged through the entire list and imagine the number of charts we saw that were buyable.  Nada.  Zip.  Nyet.  Ninguem.  A slight exaggeration.  As everybody knows we’re long gold, but woldn’t buy anymore right now.  We commented a while back that OIL (USO equivalent) was a good short.  In general all of these issues can be summed up with one chart:

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Is that it? No. Not yet. But careful chart reading pays off.

Posted on Jan 15, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

The Dow has been down 7 days like, you know, like two or three times in 23 years.  (We forget the exact sttistic becuase it doesn’t interest us much.)  A careful look at the chart here will show that one of those times was the toboggan run to the panic sell off in October.  Back in the old days you could pretty much buy the close on the fifth day down and depend on making a quick buck.  These here is different times.

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Dow death struggle continues

Posted on Jan 13, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

Contrarians (traders), bottom fishers and congenital optimists –as well as those who fear that they might be left behind when the train leaves the station—are buying stocks.  And then, surprise, traders sell them.  So – stocks go up and down.  A death struggle is taking place between bears and these elements.  At the full moon (yes, the full moon!) bear forces have taken control.  How long they will maintain control is open to question.

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The score: -5523 to +3928

Posted on Jan 09, 2009 by WHC Bassetti.

The  score as of January 2009:  -5523 to +3928

Buy and holders, and investors in feckless mutual funds and indices are down 5523 points from the top.  Or, -39%.

edwards-magee.com went short the market in January 2008 at 12603.  Score +3928 or 31%

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