Lack of certainty…


We have remarked that we consider this year long action one formation.  And — with 20/20 hindsight it is now clear that the systems Basing Point should have remained at the oct14 low.  We had already discounted the flash low as an  invalid trend change.  This reconsideration furnishes the theoretical rationale for our present posture.  Which is… We scaled in to small bets in UPRO.  An aggressive move.  Not for conservatives.

All of this must be considered in the context of long term developments.  Namely, the Dow Theory has thrown off a sell signal; the mar09 trendline is broken; there is a flash sell off; the market is schizophrenic; contrarians are sharpening their knives.  All this should presage a severe correction.  But the flash sell off looked like a climax to us.


In short there is no certainty at present.

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