Safe to go in the water? with a toe maybe…

When there is a question about whether  you should jump in the water you respond by taking the amount of capital you intend to commit over the long run and dividing it into tranches –3 to 5 pieces depending on the state of the market and the general economic situation.  When the downside risk appears potentially great you employ the most tranches.  Needless to say recent (unhappy) experience leads us to say that current conditions  remain risk saturated, so one might step in with one of five tranches and deploy the remaining tranches on a scale higher.

For a trade at this point there is an obvious tight-tight stop underneath the wave low at 2443 — not employing a filter but using 2441.  You can get whipsawed at this level.  A safer stop is below the previous wave low at 2351.  Or 2349.  Needless to say the sharks can bite your toe off and at this point we have no opinion as to whether a wave up is in prospect or whether the abyss awaits.  But the chart looks buyable.

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