Archive for 'Letters'

Safe to go in the water? with a toe maybe…

Posted on Jan 08, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/ErVJMf

When there is a question about whether  you should jump in the water you respond by taking the amount of capital you intend to commit over the long run and dividing it into tranches –3 to 5 pieces depending on the state of the market and the general economic situation.  When the downside risk appears potentially great you employ the most tranches.  Needless to say recent (unhappy) experience leads us to say that current conditions  remain risk saturated, so one might step in with one of five tranches and deploy the remaining tranches on a scale higher.

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The ominous…

Posted on Jan 03, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/iofWKS  Ten years of the market, weekly bars.  A year ago at an AAPTA meeting  we told professional technical analysts that we wouldn’t have a bear market until the long term trendline was broken.  As seen below prices have (so far) bounced off the long term trendline.

 

http://schrts.co/xFEH6M

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Party’s on…where’s the champagne?

Posted on Dec 26, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/ErVJMf

One gets jaded as day after day another historic record falls.  Today  the Dow rocketed more than a thousand points — greatest move in history.

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Merry Christmas and happy Food Bank…

Posted on Dec 21, 2018 by .

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Every year at Christmas we donate to our local food bank.  We strongly encourage you to do the same.  Our link is http://www.sfmfb.org.

You can google your local food bank link.  Watch for our year end letter.

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Freefall.

Posted on Dec 20, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/ufAZPx

If this looks like Niagra Falls it is because it is like Niagra Falls.  We have been warning since October of the severity of this downwave and long ago took 99.9% of our personal capital to the sidelines.  Hopefully our readers have done the same.  If not, infinite pain.  Sometimes investors are reluctant to  bail out because they “don’t want to lose their position”. (or they believe in Mallkiel.)  Well if your position is bleeding like a stuck pig why is it so attractive?  And.  You can always get back in and probably at a better price.

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