Pivot on a pfennig…maybe

Posted on Oct 17, 2014 by .




After quite some contemplation and analysis we concluded that  the down wave is over — for the moment at least.  How long “over” lasts is now the question.  Could be a wave, could be a ripplet (a day or two).  At any rate, as someone remarked, the “taper tantrum” appears to have exhausted itself.

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Many ominous signals…

Posted on Oct 13, 2014 by .




The trendline is from mar09.  Broken.  The upper  moving average line is the 50 day SMA and the lower line is the 200 day SMA.  Broken.  We record them because many non technicians consider them important.  What is really important here is the trendline — and the growing volume.  The more we look at this the worse it looks.  In our personal accounts we  have been near perfect hedged, but we lifted the hedge today expeccting a short term bounce.  Very short term.  Depending on the rest of the week we may just go outright short.

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The real problem…

Posted on Oct 08, 2014 by .




The market has been hammered repeatedly over the last 10 days or so, so naturally the WSJ, attempting to explain the unexplainable, attributes it to fear  that global growth is stalling.  Actually they would have done better to attribute it to the eclipse of the moon, or the eclipse of the Nationals.  Articles like this are written by the market’s disinformation committee to keep non-professional traders from understanding what is going on.

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A major crash waiting to happen????

Posted on Oct 04, 2014 by .


We may be a bit ahead of the curve here, but the chart for the Russell 2000 looks a lot like the chart patterns which appeared in 2007-08.  And the trade signal has not yet appeared but short is the way to bet.  Always trying to steal a march  or jump the gun (or jump the shark) we will short this next week and use a money management stop.  Smarter and more conservative investors will wait for the horizontal support line to be clearly taken out.  Sometimes we wish we had not been born schizophrenic, but most of the time we just enjoy it.

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