Man bites volatility…

Posted on Feb 18, 2019 by .

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The character of volatility never changes.  It always reverts to the mean.  That doesn’t mean that it is absolutely predictable.  That would be a rare animal indeed.  Rather it is a general concept sometimes apparently voided in specific instances.  Nonetheless it always behooves the trader/investor to know the state of volatility when making decisions.  You also have to observe (in many cases) the volatility of the individual issue you are concerned with and wheere it fits into long term behavior.

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Still damned if you do, damned…

Posted on Jan 28, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/tXAfNmEr

As we wrote last week, we dipped a tiny toe into the market  while repeating our mantra:  if this doesn’t work we’ll run for it.  Well, we did run for it.

This in spite of technical tools which point to higher prices.  If we ran a rule-of-seven analysis (http://www.edwards-magee.com/ggu/ruleofseven.pdf/) on this wave we would get target prices of  2921 and 3112.

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The present state of the market…

Posted on Jan 19, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/NZCENeFF

It is interesting to note that during the recent sell-off prices did not take out the very strong and long P&F trendline.  We won’t go into the niceties of P&F charting except to say that trendlines have the same import as  bar chart trendlines.  In fact it might be said they are marginally more powerful because of the P&F chart’s filtering of noise.

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Safe to go in the water? with a toe maybe…

Posted on Jan 08, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/ErVJMf

When there is a question about whether  you should jump in the water you respond by taking the amount of capital you intend to commit over the long run and dividing it into tranches –3 to 5 pieces depending on the state of the market and the general economic situation.  When the downside risk appears potentially great you employ the most tranches.  Needless to say recent (unhappy) experience leads us to say that current conditions  remain risk saturated, so one might step in with one of five tranches and deploy the remaining tranches on a scale higher.

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The ominous…

Posted on Jan 03, 2019 by .

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http://schrts.co/iofWKS  Ten years of the market, weekly bars.  A year ago at an AAPTA meeting  we told professional technical analysts that we wouldn’t have a bear market until the long term trendline was broken.  As seen below prices have (so far) bounced off the long term trendline.

 

http://schrts.co/xFEH6M

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