Technical Analysis of Stock Trends

Froth.

Posted on May 18, 2013 by WHC Bassetti.

This picture was published in the WSJ noting the sale of this immortal piece of art (Barret Newman) for $42M.  In the Journal, in black and white it was just two black blobs.  Here we see it better and realize it is two blue blobs.  What it means for market analysis is that froth and foolishness is entering the market.  This is good.  The more the merrier.  In addition farmland prices are going out of sight.  These are all signs of froth in the economy.  Somebody ought to tell those 12.3 M unemployed people to stay out of sight, lest they spoil the party by looking ragged and hungry.  Oh well Congress is on the case, working hard — having passed 30 bills on abortion and repealed Obama care at least five times.  We once suggested that all the seats in Congress should be electrified (like the border fence) and constituents should be able to vote to give their representatives the hot seat, and when that vote reached 50% plus one the Congressman would be turned into a crispy critter.  But we digress.

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If this is not a confirmation, what is?

Posted on May 15, 2013 by WHC Bassetti.

Tuesday, lucky Tuesday.  The markets took off today in what is an apparent confirmation of what we have been saying — the bull market is on.  (Don’t get too happy here.  It’s always when you’ve won the lottery that you discover that someone has picked your pocket.)  Also, what we have here is a 126 day wave without a downwave.  On the positive side the wave has had several minor downwaves and sidewaves.  We illustrate:

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Is everything too good?

Posted on May 13, 2013 by WHC Bassetti.

Last week a number of issues gapped up, which we will illustrate shortly.  Now we almost never met a gap we didn’t like but these are making us a bit uneasy.  Surveying the general scene and the composition of market participants — especially the jackals who do high frequency trading and the ultra agile hedge funds — we are thinking that the next top may not be identifiable with the usual tools.  This is just conjecture at the moment.  But it looks to us like the next top may be a V top, and occur with untold violence and speed.  You will remember that the 09 bottom was a V bottom.

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Buffet curses TLT…

Posted on May 07, 2013 by WHC Bassetti.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p47215435732&a=231495808

Well we don’t actually know that Warren curses.  But he bad mouthed the bond market.  We were already short and we added to our position today. (asterisks).  We don’t think this is the beginning of the end.  We think it is the beginning of the beginning.  Readers should be aware that this is trading (aggressive) and not investing.  We’ll tell you when we think an investment on the short side is warranted.  Obviously we shorted with TBT, not TLT.

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All that glitters…and some heavy reading…

Posted on May 05, 2013 by WHC Bassetti.

In general the only reading we recommend is the chart, and it doesn’t take a lot of verbiage to analyze it.  Also brevity is the soul of wit.  We’ll be brief here.  We reshorted gold and silver.  That trade is what we call a no-signal trade.  It’s just based on our analysis of the market and the possible ending of the upwave — which would be a B or beta wave.  In connection with that we have some links to some reading which is not required, but might be of interest:

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