The razor’s edge…

Posted on Apr 12, 2014 by .

2

0411spx

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96206718625&a=214966864

The market is sliding along the razor’s edge.  The SPX is only 9 points from the important trendline of nov12.  The formation has certain aspects of an alpha-beta-gamma pattern (or ABC) with the present wavelet in the gamma (C) phase.  Penetration of the nov12 trendline would be serious and might be the precursor (if that has not already happened) of a painful downwave.  We are presently somewhat hedged and certainly would fully hedge if that happened.  And perhaps even go net short.

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Straws in the wind?

Posted on Apr 08, 2014 by .

0

Dennis Gartman, a prominent analyst, is reported by Marketwatch to be fleeing the market, provoked in part by the unsettling market action Friday.  He described his observation as like watching someone flip a switch.  Ourselves, watching Friday, felt like we were watching a snow avalanche.  While it did not feel exactly like 1987 (in which we made a killing) it was disquieting.  The continuation Monday also caused some equity pain, and some analytical discomfort.

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The contrarian empire strikes back…

Posted on Apr 05, 2014 by .

0

0404spx

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96206718625&a=214966864

First let us be clear.  Giving inordinate priority to one day’s action militates against our long term intentions.  But — oy vey — what a day.  Yesterday the sky fell on chicken little.  A 1.26% day in the S&P should be commented on for freak value if nothing else, and when your portfolio was hit by falling chickens (as ours was) you at least like to commiserate with fellow victims.

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Inch by bloody inch…

Posted on Apr 03, 2014 by .

0

0402spx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83750808625&a=214966864

SPX prices finally got it together to escape from the rectangle.  The breakout bars were nothing impressive, but who are we to look new highs in the mouth.  If this is progress (it is) it comes at the expense of many hen’s teeth and in the teeth of warnings about the 1929 chart, the 1987 chart, the probable 30% downtrend, the erectile dysfunction of Congress, the belligerence of Czar Putin…and, oh, lots of stuff.

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Market skitzy. Don’t trust it.

Posted on Mar 30, 2014 by .

0

0329spx

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83750808625&a=214966864

As if you would ever trust it.  Only if you were in a fugue state.  Or drugged.  The market has basically been in a muddle for —simple count 20 some odd days — larger  analysis — a couple of months.  We knew we were making a high risk trade in IBB and the market ejected us, as it did in JO.  Contrarians rule.  Perhaps not a surprise given the continued impotence of Congress and the potence of Putin.  (Actually semi-tough, and at that, a semi-tough thug.)

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