Mixed signals: Dow Theory sell. Magee BPs hold. 49ers punt…

Posted on Apr 12, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/qn6X2z

There it is.  Clear as mud.  Why do people say that anyway?  Mud is not clear to us.  We always wallow in it until we make some sense of it.  Clearly there is a lot of mud going on here, and with a crystal ball and a marijuana stock (or a stock of mary jane) we can make something of it.  Looked at up close it looks like a triangle struggling to be reborn.  Surprisingly from the long view it looks like a top (but of no known identity).  Wallowing around down here in the mud we still believe it is a temporary correction, but not buyable because of the excess volatility.

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Still under the influence of the triangle…

Posted on Apr 01, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/CuWr77

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Triangle proves prophetic…if not apopcalyptic..

Posted on Mar 22, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/CuWr77

Today’s violent action (700 points in the Dow) we took as a threat of even more downside action and we flattened our long SPX positions.  We have the downside penetration of the triangle line *note* on a breakaway gap and today a continuation or runaway gap.  Not good.  On action like this we are content to abandon our identity as long term traders, get out of the way of the train and live to fight another day.  Readers must decide how much risk they are willing to take.  Calculating from the depth of the triangle we could easily see a target of 2194.  With a Trump sponsored trade war who knows.

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A dangerous triangle…

Posted on Mar 19, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/3hqd55

http://schrts.co/CuWr77 

Readers may reacquaint themselves about triangles in the 10th ed. of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. Chapter 8.   Prices are in a triangle — or rather breaking down out of a triangle.  This is not good news.  While there is substantial similarity in the charts there is another interpretation  possible of the S&P  chart.

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Bungee markets. Don’t jump….

Posted on Mar 06, 2018 by .

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http://schrts.co/5EikRY

Enjoy the view.  You are looking at history.  Thousand point days in the Dow, doubling and tripling volatility and trucks backing up to the market to carry away the profits of computer programs.  High frequency traders clearly caused much of the volatility.  Here is the way it is done:  program monitors market and sees that irresistable momentum is developing and goes with the trend — mostly short here.  It was easy to diagnose.  All you had to do was watch the rhythm of transactions.  Seamless trading without a pause tells you that the machines are doing it — along with some experience in computer trading of your own.

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