We go Pogo…over and over again…

Posted on Apr 21, 2017 by .

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You have to have a pretty long memory to remember the Pogo for President riots in Cambridge Mass during the halcyon days of politics as an honorable profession.  Enough of that.  Now you can make laws about drug companies and bet on them before lunch and everyone just thinks it’s whoring as usual.  And you thought Nigeria was corrupt…

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If there’s nothing to say, don’t say it…

Posted on Apr 07, 2017 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

We generally regard the sentiment expressed in the title as a religious principle and we have been in a state of religious ecstasy for quite some time.  After all — over 100 days during which the SPX does not move 1% is a freak show statistic, and what do you say when paint is drying?  Go Paint, go!

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Chicken Little, meet CAPE

Posted on Mar 05, 2017 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

The musical score of this market is furnished by chickens clucking.  Incessantly.  The more the sky doesn’t fall the more insistent the clucking becomes.  The P/E ratio is too high.  Cluck cluck.  S&P P/E 26.75 at the moment, against an average of 15.64 (median 14.65, minimum 5.31, maximum 123.73).  A good time for a teachable moment.  The P/E is not a definitive indicator.  It is a debateable tool in the never ending search for the philosopher’s stone — which ever flees before us like a holy grail.  And there is no known tool which reliably identifies the top.  Long term trendline breaks  are very useful, and even short term breaks are indicative.

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