Chicken Little, meet CAPE

Posted on Mar 05, 2017 by .

0

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

The musical score of this market is furnished by chickens clucking.  Incessantly.  The more the sky doesn’t fall the more insistent the clucking becomes.  The P/E ratio is too high.  Cluck cluck.  S&P P/E 26.75 at the moment, against an average of 15.64 (median 14.65, minimum 5.31, maximum 123.73).  A good time for a teachable moment.  The P/E is not a definitive indicator.  It is a debateable tool in the never ending search for the philosopher’s stone — which ever flees before us like a holy grail.  And there is no known tool which reliably identifies the top.  Long term trendline breaks  are very useful, and even short term breaks are indicative.

Continue Reading

Holy Moly Batman. Market Rocket blasts off!

Posted on Mar 01, 2017 by .

0

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

Imagine waking up and discovering you are 1.3% richer in one day before breakfast.  303 points in the Dow, 32 points in the SPX — how much of this is due to Trump and how much to the technical structure of the market.  Of course there is no way to know definitively–that is the nature of the market.  Some of the jungle drums are attributing  today’s rocket to paniced short covering.  A very likely hypothesis.  Anyway unless you were already long you would have been chasing the train down the tracks

Continue Reading

Flags flying? Trump tweeting…

Posted on Feb 13, 2017 by .

0

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24SPX,PWTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]

The PnF system is looking for a target of 2639 in the SPX.  This seems quite feasible to us, and is supported by the candle chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

Continue Reading

Hurricane Trump blasts through market. Expected to overcloud market for years…

Posted on Feb 02, 2017 by .

0

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

Hurricane Trump blew through the market creating a pronounced downdraft in prices — 20 someodd in the SPX and similar (a range of 158)  in the Dow.  There is no known defense for political fits like this.  While investors suffered paper losses (presumably temporary– spooking and selling based on such tantrums is bad for your financial health) imagine the distress of the flying public caught  in midair or worse in Somalia.  Not to mention Syrian refugees who are now like the Jews on the MS Saint Louis on the voyage of the damned, forbidden by Trump to seek refuge here.

Continue Reading

 Page 3 of 220 « 1  2  3  4  5 » ...  Last »