Archive for October, 2008

Dialing for dollars, or betting the buck

Posted on Oct 29, 2008 by .

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October 29 2008  The upwave in the dollar has ended for the moment.  Traders will be out or short.  Investors should be watching for the downwave.  We don’t really give lessons in these posts, but investors should be aware that upwaves are followed by downwaves, which when exhausted serve as basing points for stops.  Trend followers do not attempt to jump in and out of the issue.  The stop is 5% under the consolidation in October.  Markets in general are so squirrely right now that all analysis is subject to second guessing by long experience.  Nonetheless we think right now that the correction in the relationship of the dollar to world currencies has begun and will be long lasting.

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Stranger and Stranger. Another huge day in the Dow. Test of Low?

Posted on Oct 28, 2008 by .

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October 28 2008.  Dow up almost 900 points as jaws drop.  Some jaws are very prominent jaws.  It makes one wonder whether the Dow has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.  Mark Hulbert (one of the jaws at issue) at Marketwatch in his current column opined that the Dow had failed the bull case.  That is, a close lower than that of the October 10 close had been made last Friday and this Monday.  This is true.

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Dow teeters on edge. Bottom fishers catch deadcat fish?

Posted on Oct 25, 2008 by .

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Dead cat.  Get it?  The dead cat bounce is over and the market is now the site of a tug of war between bottom fishers and paniced sellers.  As there is no clear signal the way to stay is short (if you were already short) or out.  New shorts or longs or anything at this point is just cruising for a bruising if you are an investor.  Stocks are cheap?  What makes you think that?  the P/E ratios are still historically high even at the sold off prices.  Mark Hulbert at Marketwatch.com has a useful column on this subject.

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Perverser and perverser. Gold teeters on edge (or over edge)

Posted on Oct 22, 2008 by .

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There are two stop points here, one is 3% under the September low, at 70.33 (on close) and the other is 5% under it, 68.88. If GLD does not hold here at these stops we will be out and waiting until a confirmed uptrend begins.

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Gold perversities

Posted on Oct 21, 2008 by .

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