Technical Analysis of Stock Trends

TLT tilts. We buy silver (SLV, AGQ)

Posted on Sep 03, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20970412253&a=207054001

Jim Rogers couldn’t have called this better.  TBT which we bought is the short of this.  Based on this action it could go a lot lower.

Meanwhile smarty pants sold his silver and had to buy it back today.  Remains to be seen which was the good trade.  We are very suspicious, and think the gold will be held in the trading range — silver?  who knows?  But the chart says be long.

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Buying the Qs, selling the gold.

Posted on Sep 02, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p39697041562&a=203282119

We bought the Qs based on power bar across the trendline on dumpety bumpety down wave pattern.  This is a trade, not a system or trend position.

We also sold the gold  (and the silver).  Why would we do that, when we have basically been long gold since 2003?  Once again this is a trade, not a systems move.

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Bull, bear, mule….greased pig?

Posted on Aug 28, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03149889863&a=204730441

Sometimes the lexicon is strained to describe the market.  While this is technically a mule (or sideways) market, mule hardly describes it.  In the past we have made significant contributions to the nomenclature — Kilroy (H&S) Bottoms, bungee markets, squirrel markets, dumpity bumpety patterns– (we understand that these contributions have been eagerly adopted in Roumania and Kazakstan).

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S&P wave bottom?

Posted on Aug 27, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

Every trade is fraught with danger at inception, and every wave change is fraught with uncertainty.  But the S&P (and the Dow) is breaking the hourly trendline so we are initiating a light trade in the S&P.  This is a trade, not a trend investment.  And is aggressive.

The conservative trade comes on the breaking of  the upper trendline on strength.

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Bond party over?

Posted on Aug 27, 2010 by WHC Bassetti.

This looks like the top of the bond wave for the moment.  We are buying some TBT — in effect shorting the bonds.

We remarked a few letters ago on the gap which is being closed that it might be an exhaustion gap.  We also warned against buying bonds. Now we get to say what we most love to say:  We told you so –

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