Divination of market bottoms (crystal ball analysis)

Posted on Mar 06, 2009 by in Letters

First of all we are not even looking for a market bottom here.  Bottoms to bear markets like this do not form overnight.  They take months.  We are just trying to divine (divinate?) where the rally is likely to start.  We are going on 45 days of downwave now.  That is a pretty long wave.  Is there any way to know whether a rally (strong or otherwise) is likely to start.  Note this well: NO.  There is a negative indicator.  Peter Eliades just said that the Dow was going to 4000.  That probably means we are close to a bottom (irony).  When pundits start exposing their probisci to low flying eggs and making wild predictions (intended to generate attention getting traffic) but which usually result in egg on the face we perk up.  Ah! An Indicator.

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