Are we there yet?

Posted on Apr 25, 2009 by in Letters

No, and not likely to be so any time soon.  We have remarked on our remarks (quite remarkable remarks in retrospect) back in December when we remarked that what was forming was not a Kilroy (orH&S) bottom because of the failure to rise of the right side shoulder/hand. (Marked on chart.) Prices rounded over after that and plunged again.  We are in somewhat the same situation at present.  The explosive really from March    is in the area of a right hand/shoulder and could well be forming a hand.  It could also round over and test the March low.  After a rise like March --a pronounced upwave -- a downwave is to be expected.  You will remember that sidewaves can take the place of downwaves.  it appears that we are in this sidewave now, but there is not enough of it to be dispositive.  It can resolve itself into a downwave or can breakout to the upside and we will have a completed Kilroy that some of our readers have been looking for.  The pattern is similar in the SPX and in the INDU, with the SPX more fully developed.There is some interpretation involved here as the hands are not very deep.  And it is possible that this formation is part of a much larger Kilroy --see note on shoulder/hand Apr 09.  It would be possible for both to be true.  Evaluating the bottom to this point --and once again speculating to a certain extent-- we can easily see 6 months more of bottom work before there is anything remotely resembling a bull market.  At the same time the waves are so large and violent that a modest trading ability should be able to reap some unusual profits.  The lottery tickets, mad money and wild speculation we made in our personal account over the past few months (F, C, FNM, FRE,  etcetc) show profits that look like a futures account.

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