44?

Posted on May 07, 2009 by in Letters

The present wave in the SPX (and the other indices) has now carried 44 days and gained 39% from the bottom.  It is Thursday and tomorrow is Friday.  That might seem obvious but think about it.  What happens on Friday?  Often bad things.  The indices are approaching the previous neckline and the 200 day moving average is looming up there as a wall of resistance.  We wouldn't be surprised to see some fireworks as traders rush for the chairs when the music stops.  Is this general paranoia?  Or is it justified, rational paranoia?  Whichever, we would be ready to spring and get some shorts back on.  A downwave is due.  How violent it will be is open to question.  Other random facts and observations might be of interest -- the downwave which preceded this upwave was 44 days long.  This upwave has almost carried to the upper neckline and a downwave here might set up massive Kilroy (H&S) bottom we have been conjecturing.  That would take some months to complete but could set the stage for some sort of bull market.  The economic stage is hardly set for a bull market.  Congress, bought and paid for by the special interests, (The scandal is not what is illegal as someone said.  The scandal is what is legal.) quashed the bankruptcy bill which would have allowed judges to reset mortgages in court.  There is an enormous iceberg of mortgages about to hit the fan, and this pleasant intreval of a atotally technical rally may be about to become a golden memory and we can get back to feasting on bull steaks.

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