Teetering at the tipping point…

Posted on Jun 20, 2009 by in Letters

The present upwave, started in March is now 76 days long without a "correction" or downwave.  This past week the Dow was down 3+% in what might be the start of a downwave.  The upwave has rounded over and has not penetrated the all important high of January.  In the SPX this high has fallen, but not with sufficient strength to convince us that a new bull is at hand.  At this point we think a downwave is overdue, and we speculated the week past that a light short commitment was warranted.  But basically we are tepid both directions.  There is no evidence to support either direction at this point.  When the broad market indices are anomalous you must look to individual issues for direction and do what the individual chart dictates.  The question to ask is, would I buy this now?  Given that it appears a new phase of the market has started we wouldn't be buying anything which didn't hit us in the face with a show of power.  In short, everything is in limbo.  Perhaps we are waiting for the big put sellers to get out of their positions at the end of the month at expiration.  We will be pitching our positions in FNM, FRE and C if the lows of the last few days are taken out.  We bought them in the panic -- along with Ford and BAC which look worth holding.  Next week could see some shooting (and not in Iran-- or rather, in addition to Iran).

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