Archive for August, 2009

Is the bear market dead? Or how to tell if a bear is dead…(don’t kick it)

Posted on Aug 29, 2009 by .

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ART AND SCIENCE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

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Buying Citibank, also weird spec stock

Posted on Aug 28, 2009 by .

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As we threatened we bought some C, especially after reviewing the August volume.  This is power buying.  As we’ve said before we actually don’t like any of the banks, but what are you gonna do?  It’s like the only game in town.

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Buying bank stocks…while holding nose….

Posted on Aug 27, 2009 by .

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We are afflicted if not assaulted by a sense of unreality.  The banking system is a cancer on the economy.  Buy Banks! Buy Banks!  Paulson is doing it and he’s got enough money to defy reality.  (According to reports buying BAC and C.)  Well, who are we to say no.  Someone described the banks’ present strategy as “deny and delay”.  That is deny the rot on their balance sheets and delay hoping that they’ll make enough profits to cure their problems, and that real estate prices will also improve.

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Citibank, buy, sell, hold, juggle with chainsaws?

Posted on Aug 26, 2009 by .

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090826cHere is an example of mismanagement of a position because of failure to follow Basing Point procedures.  Also a little of Ahmed’s Dilemma was involved (i.e., whether to trade or ride the trend).  We bought C close to the bottom in March and sold it in late June for a decent profit.  That was not smart.

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High yielding ETFs…

Posted on Aug 25, 2009 by .

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090825jnk1In general we don’t particularly look at yield — in general because it’s so miserable on standard issues.  But here are some ETFs which do have respectable yields ranging from about 7 to 13%.  JNK here is approaching  resistance in the form of  bear trend lines and horizontal resistance.  But there is a way to play this, as well as the other issues we will mention here.  Divide the capital you want to invest into three or four tranches and put 1 tranch (or unit) in now, with a stop 5% under the nearby low.  If the resistance is overcome put in another unit, and so on.

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