Archive for October, 2009

Fool’s errand.

Posted on Oct 30, 2009 by .

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091030indu2At 10:27 San Francisco time with the market looking like this we increased our hedges and are now net short the indices.  As we said earlier attempting to trade these minor waves is a fool’s errand.  Of course we have an analysis, and it is based on the earlier intraday chart, which shows a prevailing short term downtrend.

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Bulls retreat, noses bloodied.

Posted on Oct 30, 2009 by .

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091030indu30 minute chart of Dow, last 10 days.  So we put a partial hedge back on.  We’re beginning to feel like day traders and we don’t like it at all.  Yesterday appeared to break the 10 day down trend but today appears to cancel yesterday.  We are beginning to feel that some serious bear attacks are being made on the market and urge readers to find ways to hedge or protect their portfolios.  We have prevIously mentioned the leveraged ETFs –SPXU, FAZ, QID.   The recommended way to do this is to scale into the hedge, just as one would scale into any position.

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Bears retreat, noses bloodied.

Posted on Oct 29, 2009 by .

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091029induWhat a difference a day makes.  This looks to us like the end of the flush, so we lifted our hedges.

Don’t get too comfortable though.  We think there re a lot of smart traders short, though squeezed, and they are desperately looking for reinforcements to drive the market down.  Too bad they can’t analyze trends.

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Bears. If you can’t beat ’em…

Posted on Oct 28, 2009 by .

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091028The flush is in operation, it appears.  Virtually everything we own is tending lower so we will probably be increasing our hedges today, hedging FAS with FAZ and UPRO with SPXU, and QLD with QID.

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Bears on the prowl.

Posted on Oct 26, 2009 by .

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091026induThe last few days there have been signs that the bears are on the prowl.  Wednesday in the last hour of trading (which is when the bears come out to play) the Dow dropped like it had stepped into an elevator shaft.  Today a promising rally (as we write this at 11am San Francisco time)  was turned into another bear raid.  As readers will readily recall we have expecting the flush for a week or so.

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