Six days ago we thought we saw the euro (FXE) turn. Now we’re selling our position. Why Prof, Why? Oh, we don’t know. Just don’t like it — just kidding. There is an analysis. The gap day six days ago turned into a spinning top (don’t worry about the term, just look at the picture) instead of a power bar. Then that surge up was canceled by the next three days. Ah, but a sign of hope the 5th day — what looked like a power bar. Then that was canceled by yesterday and today. We were willing to stick with it till it broke the low, but now we think you’re either short or out. Systems wise short is still the indicated trade. For our personal accounts we’re sideways.
But all in all our management of the euro has been extremely effective. Our initial trade at the top was a great example of a signal-less trade. We were spooked out of it by the bull trap, but caught it on the short side on the down gap and rode it down to the consolidation in January, took the bait on the bull trap and bought it, but immediately reversed and rode it down to its present point.
If this had been done in the FX market we’d be in the market to buy Larry Ellison’s used America’s Cup yacht.
AND — if we had traded this using Basing Points it would have been one beautiful trade. We’ll post the Basing Points analysis later in the week.