Archive for June, 2010

Analyzing IEDs.

Posted on Jun 30, 2010 by .

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2010-06-29-induhThe market is certainly spooked.  Could have something to do with the full moon.  Or fear of Greeks selling bearer bonds.  Whatever it is it’s like a roadside bomb.  In looking for bottoms on a short term basis we can go to hourly data to look for hints of the possible future direction.  What we see in the hourly chart of the Dow looks like a bottom forming, and even has a breakout across significant trendlines.  But then it turns and returns to the congestion pattern.

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Onrushing train. F, BAC, Dow, S&P

Posted on Jun 29, 2010 by .

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2010-06-29-fIn general we don’t worry about why it’s doing what it’s doing.   We just worry about what it’s doing.  What it’s doing right now is not pretty.  It is testing the general market lows with a vengeance.  A severe test of the bull trend is in progress.

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A better link

Posted on Jun 28, 2010 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06999154475&a=203091990

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06999154475&a=203091990

Here is a better link for the chart we posted yesterday.  We’re in the process of figuring out why that chart displays like that.

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Chart hints in the Dow and the S&P

Posted on Jun 27, 2010 by .

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062610spxbear flagHere is a chart posted by one of our bright graduate students at Golden Gate University.  It is a weekly chart of the S&P.  Readers will remember that weekly bars are used for very long term trading systems, and we used a weekly system in our study of the Dow (Sacred Chckens, the Holy Grail and Dow Theory).  The student is speculating and is aware of it.  He has correctly identified a candidate Basing Point  (short) in the SPX.  While it is not impossible that the formation is a bear flag (and time will tell) we still prefer to look at it as a bottom of the down wave.  It may also be a rally or upwave against the downwave started April 26.  The next chart down may give us a hint as to the next development.

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End run? Fake out? More of the same….

Posted on Jun 24, 2010 by .

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2010-06-24-induTwo things have occurred here in the hourly chart.  The little uptrend line was broken and it appears that price has returned to the congestion pattern.  Meaning that the supposed buy signal is canceled.  It appears at this moment to have been an end run, or a false breakout.  Given the conditions during this pattern this is no surprise.  It is patterns like this which drive traders crazy.

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