Archive for June, 2011

Buy buy buy… or, bye bye, downwave

Posted on Jun 29, 2011 by .

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The pattern seen above is being repeated all across the markets, from the IWM and MVV to the Qs.  We are buying the major indices, expecting it to turn into a trend trade (but not counting on it) and we analyze (note, not think–we’ve done too much thinking lately and it’s bad for your health and your portfolio) that a new upwave is taking off.

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Bonds breakout (on the downside)

Posted on Jun 29, 2011 by .

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A clear signal that this wave of the bonds is ended and the bet is that a downwave is to come.  We are buying TBT to short the bonds.  Meanwhile the real Bonds is likely going to jail.  Like all the governors of Illinois.  What a career path:  House of legislators, Governor’s House, Big House.

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Silver bullets and silver linings…

Posted on Jun 25, 2011 by .

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Looking at the silver chart against the gold chart several technical features immediately manifest themselves. The long term trendline which still holds out hope (uh-oh. Hope is the thing with wings which has ruined more portfolios than CDOs.) in the gold is broken in silver. So is the short term trendline — and bad things have already happened.

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Gold musical chairs…

Posted on Jun 25, 2011 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20970412253&a=234983962
We have marked the current Basing Point stop with the horizontal line. From the trading point of view a sell signal has already been given, and for our personal accounts we are out, but not short. Strangely the tide seems to have shifted against gold. We attribute this to hedge funds and large holders liquidating their holding and rushing to get chairs before the music officially ends. We don’t think it’s over, but this phase is over. So there will probably be a lot of skirmishes before the next phase is clear.

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No old bold pilots….

Posted on Jun 24, 2011 by .

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There are bold pilots and old pilots, but there are no old bold pilots.  So said the Red Baron.  The aggressive buy signal we saw several days ago has been effectively canceled by the last three days.  Readers should have at the top of their consciousness until informed otherwise our recently reiterated remark (note alliteration) that signals seriously stink in these markets.

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