Archive for August, 2013

News. Good news. Bad news. No news.

Posted on Aug 28, 2013 by .

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0828spx

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p20049953156&a=214966864

It always amuses us to watch the chicken littles run around like the sky is falling.  And sometimes there is something to be learned by the way they rush into or out of the market.  We usually speak of them as being a herd, but perhaps in this case they are a flock — at least they are flocking to the oil trade, and also pinching our toes in the short bond trade.  All in all the market is not reacting bullishly to the Syria news or non-news — or faux news.

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The bond top. New phase.

Posted on Aug 24, 2013 by .

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0814tlttl

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43052752726&a=312566833

We have previously pointed out the massive top in bonds.  Taht comment sank into the information glut like a sugar cube in the sea.  Usually a letter like that will provoke Barrons or Hulbert to take notice, but like the denizens of the Jersey shore watching TV while the hurricane is bearing down the punditsphere slept through it.  If our readers did here is another alarm clock and hurricane warning.  A 24 month top with head and shoulders characteristics is even now toppling  over on the bond market.  In slow motion.  We are short the TLT with TBT and adding to the position as conditions warrant.

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Trend intact. Punditry not.

Posted on Aug 22, 2013 by .

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0822spx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p20049953156&a=214966864

Our faithful friend and the usual suspect with trendlines and stairstops.  This is especially needed at present as talking heads, pundits and commentators desperately seeking attention rant on about S&P 5500 and blah blah blah.  Indicators and sunspots and full moons and failed Lone Ranger movies (sob — a more bitter disappointment than the market) Kim Kardashian gone to bubble, a Giants collapse — what does it all mean?  Well there are a couple of  “indicators” worth noting:  the NYSE advance decline line not confirming the market high and the Fosback High Low indicator flashing sell signs.

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Change of tune…

Posted on Aug 18, 2013 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p15218233755&a=236108789

We are not at all convinced that the great recovery in gold and silver has started.   But something has started.  Punctuated with a bang last Thursday.  Traders got off stocks and onto silver and gold in a big way.  Just a letter or so ago we said we wouldn’t be buying gold.  Now the chart is saying buy me.  And the conditions may be saying that also.  As we said in our last letter the market is teetering.  Followthrough (negative) in stocks would be damaging, and traders are piling in to the metals to guard against that.

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