A second bite at the apple…Gold problems

Posted on Sep 12, 2013 by in Letters

0912gld

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p79177025382&a=255869372

We shorted gold based on the downgap.  A trade rather than an investment. The August buy signal canceled by the retreat and gap constitute that phenomenon technicians regard as a high probability trade — signal- canceled signal — new signal in the other direction.

Apple, on the other hand —  Yesterday we spoke favorably of Apple.  Then last night we took another look at the chart and what we saw was not good technically.

0912aapl

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p56283038138&a=256938322

Interestingly Apple has just done what gold did.  Basically this throws into doubt our analysis of apple.  We still think that Apple is fundamentally a buy, but the downgap here says, “not right now” and wait for the technical situation to sort itself out.  The chart says short it and that might work short range.  But shorting the long range might not be a good long range thing to do.  (We did this deliberately.  It’s not an accident.)

We put on scale-in positions in QQQ and EWJ.

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2 Responses to “A second bite at the apple…Gold problems”

  1. marksisu@gmail.com

    15. Sep, 2013

    where can I read more details about your “scale-in” strategy / guidelines? How much to start, how to decide to add?
    Thanks

  2. WHC Bassetti

    16. Sep, 2013

    REeading chapter 42 Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 10th Edition
    would be a good start. I haven’t published anything I think of. But in short, apportion the capital to the issue. Ascertain the risk of the issue. Divide the capital into 3 to 5 tranches. When the issue breaks out invest the first tranche. As the trend is confirmed invest the next tranches at wave lows, and as new wave highs are made. As you are reading the letter you will note where I indicate that add-ons are appropriate. This will be a practical guide. If you will email me at bassetti@edwards-magee.com to remind me I will send you more on this when I stumble across it in my files.

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