In five days the VIX exploded more than 50%, from below 13 to above 21. Turbulence of this sort generally presages more unpleasantness for those who are not hedged, or unprepared. What does it mean –? In this bizarre and strange year with massacres, the British coming or going with assassination of parlamentarians, topped off by the cherry on the sundae of Trump anything could be true.
What is probably true is that the investment community, like a herd on a thunderstorm night, spooked — didn’t stampede but thought about it — or you might say stampeded into puts. Readers who have followed our cautionary warnings all through this sideways market should not be surprised and those who have, as we suggested, hedged should be feeling no financial pain. We have probably not emphasized as much as we should have the virtues of cash. Sooner or later the market will resume the bull market and there will be a prime buying opportunity.
Some have already tried to prepare for this strangeness by buying gold.
As is obvious gold is trending sideways and has not broken out. Buying it now is flipping a coin. We would want to see a clear breakaway as, all in all, we are not too sanguine about the issue. But readers should make their own decision about gold.
Actually the PnF system has an optimistic target for the pesky metal, 163.
Just be warned we are likely to see some bad weather here as the Brits get ready to shake up world markets. Be ready.