Market pianissimo…

Posted on Jul 18, 2017 by in Letters

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44291895677

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38978314321

When you look at the Dow and the S&P longer charts you are struck by their bullish nature.  Anybody who skipped this market or shorted it or spent his days worrying about whether the sky was going to fall is eating his heart out.  One of the first things an investor should realize is that the incessant chatter of the Chicken (Little) is nothing but counter productive.  E&M investors are free to be bold, or modestly bold, because a trade — or investment– is not a marriage, but a date.  And if the date doesn’t go well you throw the remains on the junk file and move on to the next case.  Additionally you set a stop on entering so you know your risk. And no more.

That is the background of the present.  The present itself is right here:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

The present is the market sending a subdued buy signal, pianissimo.  But that is the volume level of the market for months.  This is not to give the market a get-out-of-jail-free card.  The essential characteristic of volatility is to spring back to the mean, and when low volatility persists over a long time we must expect this will occur, and probably with an explosive vengance.  Realizing that we are riding a long strong wave  means that a volatile sell off will be a buying opportunity.  Raise some cash.  Meantime if a bear market should present itself the long term basing point stop protects us from going down with the surfboard.

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