Wave forms in the Dow.

090930induGiven the volatility of the market over the last year it is surprising that downwaves since March are so mild.  The June downwave when the entire punditocracy jumped up and down expecting the inevitable test of the March low was actually constructive.  The entire punditocracy is jumping up and down now cheering for a test of the March low.

The problem is the uptrend from March is in great shape.  We repeat ad nauseam that every wave, up or down, is followed by its opposite, except when it is followed by a sidewave.  The sidewaves — or we could say consolidations — of August are again very mild, as is the sidewave  (so far) of September.  The controlling Basing Point of September is marked and the stop is 5% under the low.

We are not trying to put a thumb in the eye of the punditocracy (wellll, maybe) or argue a case.  We are also not trying to be right.  We are making a reasoned analysis totally consistent with our long time practice.

Further, every time we attempt to anticipate the market we suffer for it.  The essence of good practice is letting the market tell you what to do, and like it or not, there is a valid uptrend in the Dow.  First rule of trends:  the trend tends to continue.

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