100225gldThis is not a positive picture, but perhaps not all is lost.  Two lower highs have been made and lower lows.  The Basing Point stop is illustrated, and we would  definitely honor it.  While gold may regain its glory, sitting through extended downwaves is not necessary.  The proper Basing Point is shown with the stop of 100.04.

In additon, at the most recent high there is a nasty pattern we call the “bull trap –snap”  which is a promising gap shortly closed with a snap.

There is then the phenomenon of the extended wave.  This wave actually began in July, topped in December and accounted for some 34% of wave.  So what is happening now may be put in that context.

Nonetheless we would not sit through the stop.  You can always get long again, but you can’t recoup losses accumulated through sitting on a downtrend.  What we do is leave a little bit riding on the bet — not enough to hurt.

What readers must understand is that the strength of the dollar is sapping the strength of gold.  They are not necessarily always correlated, and may part ways, but  good practice demands that each issue be treated on its own merits.

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